Stark contrast - India's elections and Pakistan's struggles

What a stark contrast, isn't it?
Pakistan is fighting for its existence and meanwhile India - its sibling born the same time - is going for its 15th general elections. What a different path they have taken 60 years on!!!

There is a good discussion on the India and Pakistan situation by some leading thinkers in the US here.

Also, there is an interesting article called "Could Pakistan Dissolve?" in the Mother Jones website.

There are reports today that the Pakistan state is fighting the Taliban in the NWFP provinces and the MQM - the main party in Karachi - is doing the same in the port city of Karachi in the south.
So maybe Pakistan has woken up to the cancer eating it alive. I hope its not too little, too late.

The dream of Pakistan turns into a nightmare

Mr. Jinnah - the founder of the state of Pakistan - must be spinning fast in his grave given that the Pak government is handing over parts of his dream to the Taliban.
That dream of founding a nation solely based on religion is fast turning into a nightmare.

M.V.Kamath has written a good article on the beginning of the end of Pakistan here.
How can this be allowed? How long before this monster eats up the rest of the nation?
There is a saying which is apt here: "Give a camel an inch, it takes a ell" (meaning the entire space).

India has to be really worried on three accounts:-

1. Taliban / al Qaeda on its western borders, which is more a worry than the Pakistan army.
2. Refugees poring in from across the border, particularly Sindh. (Karachi has more than 15M people who hate the Punjabi domination and want to live in a more secular state).
3. Eventual implosion of the Pakistan state, with NWFP, Balochistan and maybe even Sindh seceding from the Punjabi Pakistan, like what happened with Bangladesh.
   

Pakistan storms closer to civil breakdown

Well, this state of affairs in Pakistan could have been predicted ever since General Musharraf dismissed the justices two years back. Whenever the balance of power is so blatantly abused, the ultimate result is disaster for the state.

The backlash eventually ate up Musharraf and looks like its going to eat Zardari too.

Nawaz Sharif has played a shrewd, waiting game so far. If one remembers, he joined forces with Zardari's PPP to ensure the general was pushed out.
But he didnt grab power at that time, knowing for a fact that the nation was heading for disaster.

So he let Zardari take the fall and now he can swoop into power if elections are held.
Who else will the populace turn towards. They are disgusted with the Army, the PPP is not the same as when Bhutto was there and hence the Sharifs are the only one left out.

The US I think will "engineer" this eventually, unless of course General Kayani fancies his chances with a coup. The analysts are saying that he wont do it due to the Army's "bad" image and will let the political process weaken his rivals before he makes any move.

So Nawaz Sharif holds the cards and if he plays them well now, he may emerge from this mess as the sole survivor. The wheel will turn full circle then and he may expel both Musharaff and Zardari.

Pakistan as a entity would survive, but will always be beset with basic problems till true democracy takes root.

Cricket must go on

As ICC chair David Morgan, puts cricket must go on, even in the face of the senseless attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, Pakistan.

Of course, there would be many "I told you so" comments and playing any international sports in Pakistan itself will be well nigh impossible now till the situation improves.
But Pakistan cricket and fans should not suffer and they should have neutral venues outside of the country to continue playing.

There will be recriminations, finger pointing, conspiracies etc after this, a-la the Mumbai attacks.
Who was behind this and what was their objective in attacking cricketers needs to be dug out.

But Pakistan has been shamed for sure... attacks on the sri lankan guests after the government had promised them utmost foolproof security means that the govt cannot be trusted. Add to that the confusion of banning the Sharif brothers means Pakistan will be in this abject condition for the rest of the year or atleast till fresh elections are called. Who knows, there might be a army coup before that and we will be back to square one. Time will tell.

Slumdog wags its tale

Slumdog Millionaire, the underdog, "almost gone to DVD" movie sweeped the Oscars yesterday.
I won't go into the usual fawning that most articles give it since this movie too fits into a pattern.
That of the Westerner's obsession with India's squalor and poverty.

To support my theory, go watch/read any of the following which have achieved acclaim in the West while not claiming those heights inside of India.

• Apu Trilogy by Satyajit Ray
• Salaam Bombay by Mira Nair
• Shantaram by Gregory Roberts - English fiction novel (parts of it use crazy English)
  
• White Tiger by Aravind Adiga, 2008 Booker Prize - English fiction novel (atrocious English)
  

There is also an interesting take on this from a Chinese perspective and I tend to agree with the author's views there when he comments on an outsider's view of one's own country.

One small (MIS)step for Indian politics, One giant leap for India?

Friends, as we near another election, we need to think back on what would affect it. Terrorism is definitely one thing. But what about the nuclear deal on which the govt might have collapsed much earlier and triggered a election in 2008.

July 22nd 2008 was a seminal day in the annals of Independent India.

The Government of India survived a historic confidence motion in Parliament, primarily brought about by the Indo-US nuclear deal.

This day might have huge implications on the future of India with the US and maybe even the world, if the promises of clean energy come through.

For those who missed it, here is the final tally:- 275 for, 256 no

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFcLz4rTcd0

The misstep of course was the dramatic allegations of vote buying, with millions of rupees being dumped in the Lok Sabha LIVE!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JUVV4Ynkpw

There were some good things too:-

Omar Abdullah’s passionate speech

http://www.mypopkorn.com/news/india/upa-trust-vote-omar-abdullah-slams-bjp-and-left.html?show=MTA1MDk=

Rahul Gandhi’s “I am speaking as an Indian first” speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJTeS2DUc8

And of course Lalu’s hilarious speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGWdzyoCv28

Maybe the end (i.e. India’s national interest) justifies the means (i.e. vote buying)?

Time will tell whether that’s the right way or not…but on that day, the PM must have sung “Singh is King” as he staked his government and political career on it.

A “crying for Indian politics but smiling for India” Indian.

All of us should watch and see for ourselves the frailty of the much-touted Indian democratic politics.

And the sad fact is that this “democracy” was not of, for and by the people of India but it was of, for and by the elected politician of India…the debate hardly touched India’s supreme national interests.

I hope the Indian people have gotten a good jolt out of this and in the next election, they vote a party in with absolute majority.

They say it will not happen till the basic needs of the millions of poor people are taken care of first…they don’t care about a nuclear deal when they don’t have food to eat and their local issues dominate.

But then how did China do it? She faces the same problems, but yet their political system – however dictatorial – at least puts their country’s interest first.

We need a change in the political system with strong national forces given pre-eminence…maybe the voting should be directly for the PM (like in the US where everyone votes for the president).

Really doesn’t matter whether he/she is the Congress, BJP, SP etc but whoever gets in should have a mandate to proceed with their vision without being hampered.

The UPA-Left alliance has been an impotent govt for at least the past 4 years….India has had upwards of 8 PMs from different parties in the last 20 years!!!

I wonder when will India rise up over this crass self-interest of the regional parties and naked greed of the politicians and take our place in the world order.

Not surprising that we still don’t have a permanent seat in the Security Council, even though we represent one-sixth of humanity.

Pak's hand twisted by Afghan card?

Here's a great article by K P Nayar on why Pakistan - which till Feb 10th was saying there was "insufficient" evidence on the Mumbai attacks - again flip-flopped and owned up that the attacks were indeed planned by the LeT.

Think about it - what happened in the two days for this major volte-face?
Now Kuldip Nayar - the journalist who poked A Q Khan in a stunning interview in 1987 into revealing that Pak had the A-bomb - has written an article on the arm twisting that the US did behind the scenes.

First, it was Richard Holbrooke - the no-nonsense envoy to Afghanistan & Pakistan - did some straight talking to soften up the Pak administration, essentially saying that India will be allowed to play fully in Afghanistan if Pakistan doesnt act.
And this was followed up by a stern phone call from Obama to Zardari to make sure it happens.

Now Pakistan admits it was planned on Pakistan soil by Pakistanis - something for which they fired their NSA.
Of course, there seems to be three Pak entities and remains to be seen who wins:-

• President Zardari - who wants to please the US and maybe even India
• PM Gilani - who britsles at the president taking decisions without his consent and who is frustrated that he doesnt have the real power
• Army / ISI - who want to just brush things under the carpet as has been done for 20 years

I predict that the PPP party (Zardari and Gilani) will be chucked out of office and the Army will again install the more "islamic" leaning Nawaz Sharif who is biding his time.
This could happen within the year as the lawlessness in Pak increases and the pressure on the government to crack down also goes up.
And if after the Lok Sabha elections, one party gets a good enough mandate - either the Congress or the BJP - to flex its muscles independent of the coalition partners, then its curtains for Pakistan's attempt at democracy.
2009 might be a watershed year for Pakistan.

Pakistan in peril

William Dalrymple - a long-time journalist based in India and who has written many books on the Indian subcontinent - comments on Ahmed Rashid's book "Descent into chaos".

Al-Qaeda's warning should be taken seriously

Things have gone bizzare in Pakistan. After denying its role and then leaking stories to the press that the Mumbai massacre was planned in Bangladesh, Dubai and a "European country", Pakistan is now saying there is insufficient proof for taking action and asking India for more "proof".

Strangely, at the same time, an Al-Qaeda operative is warning India against taking action against Pakistan.
A terrorist organisation is saying not to attack the country that is hosting it.
This was similar to the threat that the Pakistani Taliban of Behtullah Mehsud gave when he said that his men would fight shoulder-to-shoulder with the Pakistani Army against any Indian attack.

Who is really the Pak army? A professional military or a crazy islamic jihadi outfit?
Think about this for a minute.
This is like Osama bin Laden warning Russia against attacking the US, even though he just attacked the US!!!!
I thought Pakistani Army/ISI was fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in their midst.
But looks like they have been just fooling the world and indeed they are on the same side.

India needs to take this warning very seriously indeed.
It is a matter of time before the next attack occurs on India, maybe just before the Lok Sabha elections.
What should be India's response?

I think it is time to take the attack to the enemy's camp. And this means fighting them were they are based, rather than waiting for them to strike in India.

India needs to send in troops to be based in Afghanistan, across the Durand line and take out whoever is enemical to India like this Al Qaeda member giving open threats.
Pakistan only seems to understand one language - that of military power.
They are not going to take any action on the Mumbai attacks and any further delay on India's part is only going to embolden them to keep giving India a thousand cuts.
How long will the Indian elephant take these taunts? Its been almost 20 years since the Kashmir insurgency was started by the ISI.

Its obvious from today's statement that they want to attack India's economic interests and this has to seen as an effort to prevent India from rising too high economically for Pak to catch up.
India needs to realize that a war has been thrusted on them - even though it is undeclared officially. Encircling the enemy and taking the battle into their own turf is needed before this gets out of hand.

Deception - Pak's nuclear bomb and the role of the US

Read the book Deception and you will understand how Pak obtained the bomb, starting 1974.
If North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Sudan are associated with "evil" regimes, the most evil it seems was the Pakistani Army / ISI, with or without the knowledge of the government.

Looks like Mr. A.Q.Khan - the nuclear black marketeer - openly flaunted international laws, stole openly and sold all kinds of banned elements to the above countries looking for a easy way to get the bomb. The book is amazingly detailed on when, where and how A.Q.Khan developed these networks. He stole uranium enrichment designs initially from Europe, then got bomb designs from China and eventually traded with North Korea for missiles.

The biggest hypocrisy exposed in the book is the USA. They looked the other way when this was going on because they wanted to beat back the Soviets from Afghanistan which needed Pak's support in 1979 (and again today). In reality, multiple US Presidents actually lie to Congress on their certification that Pak does NOT have the bomb, even though everyone knew that by 1984 they had most of the components of it.

India is of course concerned about all of this and wants Pak to be designated a terror state but with the US still reliant on Pak, I doubt that is going to happen.

What would be ironic would be if a bomb - even a dirty bomb - goes off in the USA or in China and it is traced back to Pakistan. Most times the monster turns on its creator.

Time to divide Pakistan?

Interesting article on Sify.com by Vijaykumar S. Kasi on what needs to be done with Pakistan going forward.
His break-up looks like this:- (image location from sify article).

Don't know whether this would be allowed to happen by the dominant Punjabis.
But already FATA and NWFP has slipped out of the current Pak's grip.
What is left is Baloch and Sindh, which may be difficult to break free as the left-over Pak will not have any access to the coast. More likely is that Pak's real western borders will be a thin sliver of land along the Indus river + Baloch, where the Pak govt can still retain control. The rest along the Durand line would remain a nebulous region, with militant strife or be incorporated into Afghanistan if the Pashtuns align themselves with a strong ruler in Kabul (unlikely).

In any case, the next 10 or 20 years will determine whether Pakistan is able to pull itself back from the cliff or will it start to implode from within.

Ghost Wars - the secret history of CIA, ISI, Afghanistan and bin Laden

To understand why Pakistan is the ground zero of terror today, as Indian defense minister AK Anthony mentioned, you have to go back 30 years after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or read "Ghost Wars".
This is just a BRILLIANTLY researched book by Steve Coll... a detailed account of how the CIA created the bin Laden monster via their partner in crime, the ISI of Pakistan.

It is a long book and patience is needed to go through it, but it reads like a thriller.
How the US/Pak wanted to beat back the Soviets, how they supplied arms and billions of dollars to the Afghan militants, and how the monster created to bleed the Soviet Red Army slowly turned on its masters once it had eaten through the Soviets.

India needs to learn the lessons on what goes on "behind the scenes" and how covert action can take place to further national interests. I don't blame the CIA or even the Pak army / ISI from doing what they did. The Soviet threat was real and immediate. Pakistan wanted a strategic depth in Afghan and almost got their wish with the Taliban, but they miscalculated the jihad monster that they thought they could control and use against India in Kashmir.

As for the Americans, maybe their mistake was in not finishing the job and creating a stable political solution for Afghanistan, once the military objectives were met.

Mahatma Gandhi death anniversary - the killer's mindset

Interesting article on Nathuram Godse's mindset on why he killed Mahatma Gandhi.
It is important to understand the underpinnings on why people take to violence and in this case, its religious fundamentalism. Sadly, India is still suffering under views taken by extremists, whether it is Muslim or Hindu (Ram veer sena's campaign against women in pubs is the latest example).

How will India come out of this? When these extremists don't have popular support and society shuns them. And the only way for that is to ensure modern education so that they are indoctrinated in the wrong way (its impossible to eliminate them fully since even advanced nations have fanatics).
India always has prided itself in its secular credentials. Which means that they dont subscribe to any religious ideology like say Pakistan but still allow people at the individual level to follow their religion, whatever it is.

So should it allow proselytism and conversion in the name of religion? I dont think religion alone is to blame since even if religion is not involved, violent tendencies do arise (say communist revolutions in Russia and China). I think the issue is extreme views which like to achieve their goals via violent means...that needs to be eliminated.

India needs strict enforcement of the law.

No violence can be tolerated. No one should or can take the law into their own hands.
And that's only possible with a strong, apolitical, well funded police force.
I suggest India raise the salaries of the police force thereby decreasing the corruption temptation, make them totally apolitical and ask them to crack down on violence.
Only if we nip this internal security issue now can India emerge as a strong nation.

Covert war against Pakistan - if nothing else works!!

A former ambassador has suggested going in for covert war against Pak, if nothing else works.
Of course, its easier said than done. There must be other methods before resorting to covertness.
Here are some radical thoughts:-

• Pak govt fully cooperates against terror - Pak realizes its living in denial. They should know that this is not just hurting India, but them too. I think most moderates would agree. But can the govt break out of the Army/ISI shackles and control them? This is a big if and so far, the record of Gilani/Zardari has been atrocious in trying to control the Army/ISI. I doubt Mr. Gilani or Zardari even know where the nukes are!!

• Cofederation with Pak -here’s a strategy that does NOT need military means and can work if everyone has a open mind. Of course, timing is crucial.
  

  1. First, India should stand back or even accelerate the economic woes of Pakistan to such an extent that they teeter on collapse.
  2. When that happens, India should offer to support Pakistan and indeed Afghanistan (which is tied at its hip via the imaginary Durand Line), an offer of CONFEDERATION a la the EU.

  The reason for this is when the Pak state teeters, the chance of its nukes falling in wrong hands is high. And the target of those nukes is either US or India (which is easier to reach). To prevent that, India should support the weak Pak state with full access to its markets, immediate foreign aid etc.

  Of course, this needs Pak to grab the hand that is reaching to save it and that’s why timing would be crucial. If the hawks there had any money, they would block this. But if the Pak populace is starving and not in the mood for another war, it might just be possible to pull off the impossible. This has happened before… remember Germany was the sworn enemy of both UK and France but today they are in a economic union. Its a strange world and sometimes the unconventional approach might work!!!
  

Is this too radical or will we live to see this day and re-unite the sub-continent?

Incredulous !ndia on her 59th Republic Day

As we celebrate India's 59th Republic Day today, its a good time to reflect on what we have achieved in this period since 1950 when we became a sovereign republic.
The leading strategist - Brahma Chellaney - has written an interesting article called
Incredulous !ndia

Of course, as always, there are pros and cons in my reading of India's history so far.

Pros include:-

1. India is still a secular unitary state which has not "balkanized" even though communal and regional forces could well have torn her apart.
2. India still is a democracy, which is even more a surprise as everyone predicted in 1947 that the "illiterate" Indian populace is not ready for democracy and only a socialist or communist or maybe a military "benevolent" dictator can guide the country a la comrade Lenin or Mao.
3. India is beginning to realize its economic potential. Yes, we waited till a crisis in 1991 to open up and liberalize but atleast we can now see what can be achieved and sometimes hope of the promised land is more important than anything else as it lifts national confidence in our abilities and talent.

Cons include:-

1. External security - India has always had this problem.... in the olden days, the raids through the Khyber pass was a given and later the British came through the sea. Nowadays, Pakistan is happy to play that external instigator role, with China actively supporting it by keeping India in its regional box.
   
2. Internal security - This may be even more problematic as the security forces have to fight with their own citizens, always an issue. Be this Kashmir, NE states, Naxals. (previously, the Chinese wanted to have a communist revolution in India via their support to the Nagas, Mizos and now with Naxalites).
3. Corruption - This is everywhere - be it politicians, bureaucrats, police etc. There was also a report that the Mumbai attackers bribed a Coast Guard officer who had intercepted them.
   
4. Infrastructure especially to the poorer sections of society - In this, I am clubbing together education, health, sanitation, electrification and road construction in villages and towns. We still have 400M people living below $1 a day according to the United Nations. This is really shameful that we as a nation cannot raise the standard of living of all of our citizens.

But I am hopeful for the future. India has survived its early years, always the tough period.
Now it can consolidate and grow. There are enough middle class families in India now that the economic growth will not be derailed by other forces such as communalism, internal strife etc.
Also, lower castes are participating and actually coming to power like Ms. Mayawati who could become the next PM if she manages to get enough Lok Sabha seats in the next election. Many see this with derision. I think it is good that they are embracing the democratic process and not indulging in more violent means of protest.

In the next 60 years, if India continues its current growth trend, it will become the 2nd biggest economy after China and its per capita income would be near $6000, almost a 10x growth. China is predicted to grow old after 2020 whereas India will have its demographic dividend well into the 2040's. That 20 years could make all the difference of India's rise.

But we have to get there and all of us have to come together to pull India in that direction.

The New Great Game

Came across an interesting article on the "New Great Game" wherein the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and maybe Iran continue their struggle to gain control over the vast areas of Central Asia. That the Caspian Sea and surrounding areas contain vast resources of oil and other mineral wealth is not in doubt. The issue is who will have access to that wealth.

Russia surely wants to regain the greatness of its past, be it Bolshevik USSR or even the Tsarist version of it. Already it has flexed its muscles in Georgia, giving both the puny Georgians and through them, the US a bloody nose and a clear warning not to interfere in their "near abroad".

The US of course will have none of it and will continue their antagonizing strategy of encircling Russia by inviting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, like they did with Estonia and Latvia. I wont be surprised if they extend this to the Central Asian states, though their struggles in Afghanistan might prevent this.

Chinese intentions of course is a mystery as usual. Of course, they dont want any power to come near them. They quite like the status quo with a weak Russia and US bogged down in Afghanistan, which might give them an opportunity to re-open a "Silk Route" through the Central Asian states and hope to get some influence over them via trade.
Pakistan in all likelihood would back China as they are slowly becoming a vassal state themselves and without Chinese and US support, might collapse on itself.

Afghanistan is sadly caught in the middle of this and being used by everyone as the doormat, as has been the case for over 200 years.

That leaves India to ponder how to play this great geo-political game which might be hugely important in the next few decades. It has started to dip its toes into this with the construction of the road that links the Iranian port of Chabahar with the Afghan hinterland. From there, it should have access to the vast Central Asian plains. Another effort is today's annoucement of uranium supplies from Kazakhstan, hugely important to push forward the US-India nuclear deal. From India's point of view, allying with the US would be beneficial. There will be a big hue and cry over this from the left and great crying over the loss of soverignity over India's foreign policy.

But in the overall interests of the nation, India needs to realize it needs partners to play this game. Of the great powers, China is at the polar opposite, with Russia and US as the only suitable partners. Russia being a shadow of itself and predicted to decline over the next two decades in population, really there is only the choice of the US to further India's interests there.

I would love to know other suggestions on ensuring India gets access to the resources of the Central Asian states.
PS:
Here's a good article on the links with Kazakhstan - Courting Central States

India's history since Independence

Before we can figure out where India is going, we need to understand where India is coming from.
And for that, a detailed historical account is needed to understand India.

An excellent book that I am currently reading is Ramachandra Guha's:
India after Gandhi, an excellent account of India after independence.

Of course, India is much older than that, but India got to be a truly cohesive nation only after the British left.
And now many people would object to this, but I think if it were not for the British via their railroads and English, India would have never become a contiguous nation.
They were the first to produce a map that Indians could look at and see the entire India for themselves.
If not for them, India would have remained a concept or a categorization, much like Asia or Europe today is treated.

To learn about the entire history of India, read or watch the wonderful documentary
The Story of India