Sunday, January 25, 2009

The New Great Game

Came across an interesting article on the "New Great Game" wherein the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and maybe Iran continue their struggle to gain control over the vast areas of Central Asia. That the Caspian Sea and surrounding areas contain vast resources of oil and other mineral wealth is not in doubt. The issue is who will have access to that wealth.

Russia surely wants to regain the greatness of its past, be it Bolshevik USSR or even the Tsarist version of it. Already it has flexed its muscles in Georgia, giving both the puny Georgians and through them, the US a bloody nose and a clear warning not to interfere in their "near abroad".

The US of course will have none of it and will continue their antagonizing strategy of encircling Russia by inviting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, like they did with Estonia and Latvia. I wont be surprised if they extend this to the Central Asian states, though their struggles in Afghanistan might prevent this.

Chinese intentions of course is a mystery as usual. Of course, they dont want any power to come near them. They quite like the status quo with a weak Russia and US bogged down in Afghanistan, which might give them an opportunity to re-open a "Silk Route" through the Central Asian states and hope to get some influence over them via trade.
Pakistan in all likelihood would back China as they are slowly becoming a vassal state themselves and without Chinese and US support, might collapse on itself.

Afghanistan is sadly caught in the middle of this and being used by everyone as the doormat, as has been the case for over 200 years.

That leaves India to ponder how to play this great geo-political game which might be hugely important in the next few decades. It has started to dip its toes into this with the construction of the road that links the Iranian port of Chabahar with the Afghan hinterland. From there, it should have access to the vast Central Asian plains. Another effort is today's annoucement of uranium supplies from Kazakhstan, hugely important to push forward the US-India nuclear deal. From India's point of view, allying with the US would be beneficial. There will be a big hue and cry over this from the left and great crying over the loss of soverignity over India's foreign policy.

But in the overall interests of the nation, India needs to realize it needs partners to play this game. Of the great powers, China is at the polar opposite, with Russia and US as the only suitable partners. Russia being a shadow of itself and predicted to decline over the next two decades in population, really there is only the choice of the US to further India's interests there.

I would love to know other suggestions on ensuring India gets access to the resources of the Central Asian states.
PS:
Here's a good article on the links with Kazakhstan - Courting Central States

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