Monday, January 26, 2009

Incredulous !ndia on her 59th Republic Day

As we celebrate India's 59th Republic Day today, its a good time to reflect on what we have achieved in this period since 1950 when we became a sovereign republic.
The leading strategist - Brahma Chellaney - has written an interesting article called
Incredulous !ndia

Of course, as always, there are pros and cons in my reading of India's history so far.

Pros include:-
  1. India is still a secular unitary state which has not "balkanized" even though communal and regional forces could well have torn her apart.
  2. India still is a democracy, which is even more a surprise as everyone predicted in 1947 that the "illiterate" Indian populace is not ready for democracy and only a socialist or communist or maybe a military "benevolent" dictator can guide the country a la comrade Lenin or Mao.
  3. India is beginning to realize its economic potential. Yes, we waited till a crisis in 1991 to open up and liberalize but atleast we can now see what can be achieved and sometimes hope of the promised land is more important than anything else as it lifts national confidence in our abilities and talent.
Cons include:-
  1. External security - India has always had this problem.... in the olden days, the raids through the Khyber pass was a given and later the British came through the sea. Nowadays, Pakistan is happy to play that external instigator role, with China actively supporting it by keeping India in its regional box.
  2. Internal security - This may be even more problematic as the security forces have to fight with their own citizens, always an issue. Be this Kashmir, NE states, Naxals. (previously, the Chinese wanted to have a communist revolution in India via their support to the Nagas, Mizos and now with Naxalites).
  3. Corruption - This is everywhere - be it politicians, bureaucrats, police etc. There was also a report that the Mumbai attackers bribed a Coast Guard officer who had intercepted them.
  4. Infrastructure especially to the poorer sections of society - In this, I am clubbing together education, health, sanitation, electrification and road construction in villages and towns. We still have 400M people living below $1 a day according to the United Nations. This is really shameful that we as a nation cannot raise the standard of living of all of our citizens.
But I am hopeful for the future. India has survived its early years, always the tough period.
Now it can consolidate and grow. There are enough middle class families in India now that the economic growth will not be derailed by other forces such as communalism, internal strife etc.
Also, lower castes are participating and actually coming to power like Ms. Mayawati who could become the next PM if she manages to get enough Lok Sabha seats in the next election. Many see this with derision. I think it is good that they are embracing the democratic process and not indulging in more violent means of protest.

In the next 60 years, if India continues its current growth trend, it will become the 2nd biggest economy after China and its per capita income would be near $6000, almost a 10x growth. China is predicted to grow old after 2020 whereas India will have its demographic dividend well into the 2040's. That 20 years could make all the difference of India's rise.

But we have to get there and all of us have to come together to pull India in that direction.

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