Well, this state of affairs in Pakistan could have been predicted ever since General Musharraf dismissed the justices two years back. Whenever the balance of power is so blatantly abused, the ultimate result is disaster for the state.
The backlash eventually ate up Musharraf and looks like its going to eat Zardari too.
Nawaz Sharif has played a shrewd, waiting game so far. If one remembers, he joined forces with Zardari's PPP to ensure the general was pushed out.
But he didnt grab power at that time, knowing for a fact that the nation was heading for disaster.
So he let Zardari take the fall and now he can swoop into power if elections are held.
Who else will the populace turn towards. They are disgusted with the Army, the PPP is not the same as when Bhutto was there and hence the Sharifs are the only one left out.
The US I think will "engineer" this eventually, unless of course General Kayani fancies his chances with a coup. The analysts are saying that he wont do it due to the Army's "bad" image and will let the political process weaken his rivals before he makes any move.
So Nawaz Sharif holds the cards and if he plays them well now, he may emerge from this mess as the sole survivor. The wheel will turn full circle then and he may expel both Musharaff and Zardari.
Pakistan as a entity would survive, but will always be beset with basic problems till true democracy takes root.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Cricket must go on
As ICC chair David Morgan, puts cricket must go on, even in the face of the senseless attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, Pakistan.
Of course, there would be many "I told you so" comments and playing any international sports in Pakistan itself will be well nigh impossible now till the situation improves.
But Pakistan cricket and fans should not suffer and they should have neutral venues outside of the country to continue playing.
There will be recriminations, finger pointing, conspiracies etc after this, a-la the Mumbai attacks.
Who was behind this and what was their objective in attacking cricketers needs to be dug out.
But Pakistan has been shamed for sure... attacks on the sri lankan guests after the government had promised them utmost foolproof security means that the govt cannot be trusted. Add to that the confusion of banning the Sharif brothers means Pakistan will be in this abject condition for the rest of the year or atleast till fresh elections are called. Who knows, there might be a army coup before that and we will be back to square one. Time will tell.
Of course, there would be many "I told you so" comments and playing any international sports in Pakistan itself will be well nigh impossible now till the situation improves.
But Pakistan cricket and fans should not suffer and they should have neutral venues outside of the country to continue playing.
There will be recriminations, finger pointing, conspiracies etc after this, a-la the Mumbai attacks.
Who was behind this and what was their objective in attacking cricketers needs to be dug out.
But Pakistan has been shamed for sure... attacks on the sri lankan guests after the government had promised them utmost foolproof security means that the govt cannot be trusted. Add to that the confusion of banning the Sharif brothers means Pakistan will be in this abject condition for the rest of the year or atleast till fresh elections are called. Who knows, there might be a army coup before that and we will be back to square one. Time will tell.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Slumdog wags its tale
Slumdog Millionaire, the underdog, "almost gone to DVD" movie sweeped the Oscars yesterday.
I won't go into the usual fawning that most articles give it since this movie too fits into a pattern.
That of the Westerner's obsession with India's squalor and poverty.
To support my theory, go watch/read any of the following which have achieved acclaim in the West while not claiming those heights inside of India.
I won't go into the usual fawning that most articles give it since this movie too fits into a pattern.
That of the Westerner's obsession with India's squalor and poverty.
To support my theory, go watch/read any of the following which have achieved acclaim in the West while not claiming those heights inside of India.
- Apu Trilogy by Satyajit Ray
- Salaam Bombay by Mira Nair
- Shantaram by Gregory Roberts - English fiction novel (parts of it use crazy English)
- White Tiger by Aravind Adiga, 2008 Booker Prize - English fiction novel (atrocious English)
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
One small (MIS)step for Indian politics, One giant leap for India?
Friends, as we near another election, we need to think back on what would affect it. Terrorism is definitely one thing. But what about the nuclear deal on which the govt might have collapsed much earlier and triggered a election in 2008.
The Government of India survived a historic confidence motion in Parliament, primarily brought about by the Indo-US nuclear deal.
This day might have huge implications on the future of India with the US and maybe even the world, if the promises of clean energy come through.
For those who missed it, here is the final tally:- 275 for, 256 no
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFcLz4rTcd0
The misstep of course was the dramatic allegations of vote buying, with millions of rupees being dumped in the Lok Sabha LIVE!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JUVV4Ynkpw
There were some good things too:-
Omar Abdullah’s passionate speech
Rahul Gandhi’s “I am speaking as an Indian first” speech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJTeS2DUc8
And of course Lalu’s hilarious speech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGWdzyoCv28
Maybe the end (i.e. India’s national interest) justifies the means (i.e. vote buying)?
Time will tell whether that’s the right way or not…but on that day, the PM must have sung “Singh is King” as he staked his government and political career on it.
A “crying for Indian politics but smiling for India” Indian.
All of us should watch and see for ourselves the frailty of the much-touted Indian democratic politics.
And the sad fact is that this “democracy” was not of, for and by the people of India but it was of, for and by the elected politician of India…the debate hardly touched India’s supreme national interests.
I hope the Indian people have gotten a good jolt out of this and in the next election, they vote a party in with absolute majority.
They say it will not happen till the basic needs of the millions of poor people are taken care of first…they don’t care about a nuclear deal when they don’t have food to eat and their local issues dominate.
But then how did China do it? She faces the same problems, but yet their political system – however dictatorial – at least puts their country’s interest first.
We need a change in the political system with strong national forces given pre-eminence…maybe the voting should be directly for the PM (like in the US where everyone votes for the president).
Really doesn’t matter whether he/she is the Congress, BJP, SP etc but whoever gets in should have a mandate to proceed with their vision without being hampered.
The UPA-Left alliance has been an impotent govt for at least the past 4 years….India has had upwards of 8 PMs from different parties in the last 20 years!!!
I wonder when will India rise up over this crass self-interest of the regional parties and naked greed of the politicians and take our place in the world order.
Not surprising that we still don’t have a permanent seat in the Security Council, even though we represent one-sixth of humanity.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Pak's hand twisted by Afghan card?
Here's a great article by K P Nayar on why Pakistan - which till Feb 10th was saying there was "insufficient" evidence on the Mumbai attacks - again flip-flopped and owned up that the attacks were indeed planned by the LeT.
Think about it - what happened in the two days for this major volte-face?
Now Kuldip Nayar - the journalist who poked A Q Khan in a stunning interview in 1987 into revealing that Pak had the A-bomb - has written an article on the arm twisting that the US did behind the scenes.
First, it was Richard Holbrooke - the no-nonsense envoy to Afghanistan & Pakistan - did some straight talking to soften up the Pak administration, essentially saying that India will be allowed to play fully in Afghanistan if Pakistan doesnt act.
And this was followed up by a stern phone call from Obama to Zardari to make sure it happens.
Now Pakistan admits it was planned on Pakistan soil by Pakistanis - something for which they fired their NSA.
Of course, there seems to be three Pak entities and remains to be seen who wins:-
This could happen within the year as the lawlessness in Pak increases and the pressure on the government to crack down also goes up.
And if after the Lok Sabha elections, one party gets a good enough mandate - either the Congress or the BJP - to flex its muscles independent of the coalition partners, then its curtains for Pakistan's attempt at democracy.
2009 might be a watershed year for Pakistan.
Think about it - what happened in the two days for this major volte-face?
Now Kuldip Nayar - the journalist who poked A Q Khan in a stunning interview in 1987 into revealing that Pak had the A-bomb - has written an article on the arm twisting that the US did behind the scenes.
First, it was Richard Holbrooke - the no-nonsense envoy to Afghanistan & Pakistan - did some straight talking to soften up the Pak administration, essentially saying that India will be allowed to play fully in Afghanistan if Pakistan doesnt act.
And this was followed up by a stern phone call from Obama to Zardari to make sure it happens.
Now Pakistan admits it was planned on Pakistan soil by Pakistanis - something for which they fired their NSA.
Of course, there seems to be three Pak entities and remains to be seen who wins:-
- President Zardari - who wants to please the US and maybe even India
- PM Gilani - who britsles at the president taking decisions without his consent and who is frustrated that he doesnt have the real power
- Army / ISI - who want to just brush things under the carpet as has been done for 20 years
This could happen within the year as the lawlessness in Pak increases and the pressure on the government to crack down also goes up.
And if after the Lok Sabha elections, one party gets a good enough mandate - either the Congress or the BJP - to flex its muscles independent of the coalition partners, then its curtains for Pakistan's attempt at democracy.
2009 might be a watershed year for Pakistan.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Pakistan in peril
William Dalrymple - a long-time journalist based in India and who has written many books on the Indian subcontinent - comments on Ahmed Rashid's book "Descent into chaos".
Al-Qaeda's warning should be taken seriously
Things have gone bizzare in Pakistan. After denying its role and then leaking stories to the press that the Mumbai massacre was planned in Bangladesh, Dubai and a "European country", Pakistan is now saying there is insufficient proof for taking action and asking India for more "proof".
Strangely, at the same time, an Al-Qaeda operative is warning India against taking action against Pakistan.
A terrorist organisation is saying not to attack the country that is hosting it.
This was similar to the threat that the Pakistani Taliban of Behtullah Mehsud gave when he said that his men would fight shoulder-to-shoulder with the Pakistani Army against any Indian attack.
Who is really the Pak army? A professional military or a crazy islamic jihadi outfit?
Think about this for a minute.
This is like Osama bin Laden warning Russia against attacking the US, even though he just attacked the US!!!!
I thought Pakistani Army/ISI was fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in their midst.
But looks like they have been just fooling the world and indeed they are on the same side.
India needs to take this warning very seriously indeed.
It is a matter of time before the next attack occurs on India, maybe just before the Lok Sabha elections.
What should be India's response?
I think it is time to take the attack to the enemy's camp. And this means fighting them were they are based, rather than waiting for them to strike in India.
India needs to send in troops to be based in Afghanistan, across the Durand line and take out whoever is enemical to India like this Al Qaeda member giving open threats.
Pakistan only seems to understand one language - that of military power.
They are not going to take any action on the Mumbai attacks and any further delay on India's part is only going to embolden them to keep giving India a thousand cuts.
How long will the Indian elephant take these taunts? Its been almost 20 years since the Kashmir insurgency was started by the ISI.
Its obvious from today's statement that they want to attack India's economic interests and this has to seen as an effort to prevent India from rising too high economically for Pak to catch up.
India needs to realize that a war has been thrusted on them - even though it is undeclared officially. Encircling the enemy and taking the battle into their own turf is needed before this gets out of hand.
Strangely, at the same time, an Al-Qaeda operative is warning India against taking action against Pakistan.
A terrorist organisation is saying not to attack the country that is hosting it.
This was similar to the threat that the Pakistani Taliban of Behtullah Mehsud gave when he said that his men would fight shoulder-to-shoulder with the Pakistani Army against any Indian attack.
Who is really the Pak army? A professional military or a crazy islamic jihadi outfit?
Think about this for a minute.
This is like Osama bin Laden warning Russia against attacking the US, even though he just attacked the US!!!!
I thought Pakistani Army/ISI was fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in their midst.
But looks like they have been just fooling the world and indeed they are on the same side.
India needs to take this warning very seriously indeed.
It is a matter of time before the next attack occurs on India, maybe just before the Lok Sabha elections.
What should be India's response?
I think it is time to take the attack to the enemy's camp. And this means fighting them were they are based, rather than waiting for them to strike in India.
India needs to send in troops to be based in Afghanistan, across the Durand line and take out whoever is enemical to India like this Al Qaeda member giving open threats.
Pakistan only seems to understand one language - that of military power.
They are not going to take any action on the Mumbai attacks and any further delay on India's part is only going to embolden them to keep giving India a thousand cuts.
How long will the Indian elephant take these taunts? Its been almost 20 years since the Kashmir insurgency was started by the ISI.
Its obvious from today's statement that they want to attack India's economic interests and this has to seen as an effort to prevent India from rising too high economically for Pak to catch up.
India needs to realize that a war has been thrusted on them - even though it is undeclared officially. Encircling the enemy and taking the battle into their own turf is needed before this gets out of hand.
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