Slumdog wags its tale

Slumdog Millionaire, the underdog, "almost gone to DVD" movie sweeped the Oscars yesterday.
I won't go into the usual fawning that most articles give it since this movie too fits into a pattern.
That of the Westerner's obsession with India's squalor and poverty.

To support my theory, go watch/read any of the following which have achieved acclaim in the West while not claiming those heights inside of India.

• Apu Trilogy by Satyajit Ray
• Salaam Bombay by Mira Nair
• Shantaram by Gregory Roberts - English fiction novel (parts of it use crazy English)
  
• White Tiger by Aravind Adiga, 2008 Booker Prize - English fiction novel (atrocious English)
  

There is also an interesting take on this from a Chinese perspective and I tend to agree with the author's views there when he comments on an outsider's view of one's own country.

One small (MIS)step for Indian politics, One giant leap for India?

Friends, as we near another election, we need to think back on what would affect it. Terrorism is definitely one thing. But what about the nuclear deal on which the govt might have collapsed much earlier and triggered a election in 2008.

July 22nd 2008 was a seminal day in the annals of Independent India.

The Government of India survived a historic confidence motion in Parliament, primarily brought about by the Indo-US nuclear deal.

This day might have huge implications on the future of India with the US and maybe even the world, if the promises of clean energy come through.

For those who missed it, here is the final tally:- 275 for, 256 no

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFcLz4rTcd0

The misstep of course was the dramatic allegations of vote buying, with millions of rupees being dumped in the Lok Sabha LIVE!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JUVV4Ynkpw

There were some good things too:-

Omar Abdullah’s passionate speech

http://www.mypopkorn.com/news/india/upa-trust-vote-omar-abdullah-slams-bjp-and-left.html?show=MTA1MDk=

Rahul Gandhi’s “I am speaking as an Indian first” speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJTeS2DUc8

And of course Lalu’s hilarious speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGWdzyoCv28

Maybe the end (i.e. India’s national interest) justifies the means (i.e. vote buying)?

Time will tell whether that’s the right way or not…but on that day, the PM must have sung “Singh is King” as he staked his government and political career on it.

A “crying for Indian politics but smiling for India” Indian.

All of us should watch and see for ourselves the frailty of the much-touted Indian democratic politics.

And the sad fact is that this “democracy” was not of, for and by the people of India but it was of, for and by the elected politician of India…the debate hardly touched India’s supreme national interests.

I hope the Indian people have gotten a good jolt out of this and in the next election, they vote a party in with absolute majority.

They say it will not happen till the basic needs of the millions of poor people are taken care of first…they don’t care about a nuclear deal when they don’t have food to eat and their local issues dominate.

But then how did China do it? She faces the same problems, but yet their political system – however dictatorial – at least puts their country’s interest first.

We need a change in the political system with strong national forces given pre-eminence…maybe the voting should be directly for the PM (like in the US where everyone votes for the president).

Really doesn’t matter whether he/she is the Congress, BJP, SP etc but whoever gets in should have a mandate to proceed with their vision without being hampered.

The UPA-Left alliance has been an impotent govt for at least the past 4 years….India has had upwards of 8 PMs from different parties in the last 20 years!!!

I wonder when will India rise up over this crass self-interest of the regional parties and naked greed of the politicians and take our place in the world order.

Not surprising that we still don’t have a permanent seat in the Security Council, even though we represent one-sixth of humanity.

Pak's hand twisted by Afghan card?

Here's a great article by K P Nayar on why Pakistan - which till Feb 10th was saying there was "insufficient" evidence on the Mumbai attacks - again flip-flopped and owned up that the attacks were indeed planned by the LeT.

Think about it - what happened in the two days for this major volte-face?
Now Kuldip Nayar - the journalist who poked A Q Khan in a stunning interview in 1987 into revealing that Pak had the A-bomb - has written an article on the arm twisting that the US did behind the scenes.

First, it was Richard Holbrooke - the no-nonsense envoy to Afghanistan & Pakistan - did some straight talking to soften up the Pak administration, essentially saying that India will be allowed to play fully in Afghanistan if Pakistan doesnt act.
And this was followed up by a stern phone call from Obama to Zardari to make sure it happens.

Now Pakistan admits it was planned on Pakistan soil by Pakistanis - something for which they fired their NSA.
Of course, there seems to be three Pak entities and remains to be seen who wins:-

• President Zardari - who wants to please the US and maybe even India
• PM Gilani - who britsles at the president taking decisions without his consent and who is frustrated that he doesnt have the real power
• Army / ISI - who want to just brush things under the carpet as has been done for 20 years

I predict that the PPP party (Zardari and Gilani) will be chucked out of office and the Army will again install the more "islamic" leaning Nawaz Sharif who is biding his time.
This could happen within the year as the lawlessness in Pak increases and the pressure on the government to crack down also goes up.
And if after the Lok Sabha elections, one party gets a good enough mandate - either the Congress or the BJP - to flex its muscles independent of the coalition partners, then its curtains for Pakistan's attempt at democracy.
2009 might be a watershed year for Pakistan.

Pakistan in peril

William Dalrymple - a long-time journalist based in India and who has written many books on the Indian subcontinent - comments on Ahmed Rashid's book "Descent into chaos".

Al-Qaeda's warning should be taken seriously

Things have gone bizzare in Pakistan. After denying its role and then leaking stories to the press that the Mumbai massacre was planned in Bangladesh, Dubai and a "European country", Pakistan is now saying there is insufficient proof for taking action and asking India for more "proof".

Strangely, at the same time, an Al-Qaeda operative is warning India against taking action against Pakistan.
A terrorist organisation is saying not to attack the country that is hosting it.
This was similar to the threat that the Pakistani Taliban of Behtullah Mehsud gave when he said that his men would fight shoulder-to-shoulder with the Pakistani Army against any Indian attack.

Who is really the Pak army? A professional military or a crazy islamic jihadi outfit?
Think about this for a minute.
This is like Osama bin Laden warning Russia against attacking the US, even though he just attacked the US!!!!
I thought Pakistani Army/ISI was fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in their midst.
But looks like they have been just fooling the world and indeed they are on the same side.

India needs to take this warning very seriously indeed.
It is a matter of time before the next attack occurs on India, maybe just before the Lok Sabha elections.
What should be India's response?

I think it is time to take the attack to the enemy's camp. And this means fighting them were they are based, rather than waiting for them to strike in India.

India needs to send in troops to be based in Afghanistan, across the Durand line and take out whoever is enemical to India like this Al Qaeda member giving open threats.
Pakistan only seems to understand one language - that of military power.
They are not going to take any action on the Mumbai attacks and any further delay on India's part is only going to embolden them to keep giving India a thousand cuts.
How long will the Indian elephant take these taunts? Its been almost 20 years since the Kashmir insurgency was started by the ISI.

Its obvious from today's statement that they want to attack India's economic interests and this has to seen as an effort to prevent India from rising too high economically for Pak to catch up.
India needs to realize that a war has been thrusted on them - even though it is undeclared officially. Encircling the enemy and taking the battle into their own turf is needed before this gets out of hand.

Deception - Pak's nuclear bomb and the role of the US

Read the book Deception and you will understand how Pak obtained the bomb, starting 1974.
If North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Sudan are associated with "evil" regimes, the most evil it seems was the Pakistani Army / ISI, with or without the knowledge of the government.

Looks like Mr. A.Q.Khan - the nuclear black marketeer - openly flaunted international laws, stole openly and sold all kinds of banned elements to the above countries looking for a easy way to get the bomb. The book is amazingly detailed on when, where and how A.Q.Khan developed these networks. He stole uranium enrichment designs initially from Europe, then got bomb designs from China and eventually traded with North Korea for missiles.

The biggest hypocrisy exposed in the book is the USA. They looked the other way when this was going on because they wanted to beat back the Soviets from Afghanistan which needed Pak's support in 1979 (and again today). In reality, multiple US Presidents actually lie to Congress on their certification that Pak does NOT have the bomb, even though everyone knew that by 1984 they had most of the components of it.

India is of course concerned about all of this and wants Pak to be designated a terror state but with the US still reliant on Pak, I doubt that is going to happen.

What would be ironic would be if a bomb - even a dirty bomb - goes off in the USA or in China and it is traced back to Pakistan. Most times the monster turns on its creator.

Time to divide Pakistan?

Interesting article on Sify.com by Vijaykumar S. Kasi on what needs to be done with Pakistan going forward.
His break-up looks like this:- (image location from sify article).

Don't know whether this would be allowed to happen by the dominant Punjabis.
But already FATA and NWFP has slipped out of the current Pak's grip.
What is left is Baloch and Sindh, which may be difficult to break free as the left-over Pak will not have any access to the coast. More likely is that Pak's real western borders will be a thin sliver of land along the Indus river + Baloch, where the Pak govt can still retain control. The rest along the Durand line would remain a nebulous region, with militant strife or be incorporated into Afghanistan if the Pashtuns align themselves with a strong ruler in Kabul (unlikely).

In any case, the next 10 or 20 years will determine whether Pakistan is able to pull itself back from the cliff or will it start to implode from within.

Ghost Wars - the secret history of CIA, ISI, Afghanistan and bin Laden

To understand why Pakistan is the ground zero of terror today, as Indian defense minister AK Anthony mentioned, you have to go back 30 years after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or read "Ghost Wars".
This is just a BRILLIANTLY researched book by Steve Coll... a detailed account of how the CIA created the bin Laden monster via their partner in crime, the ISI of Pakistan.

It is a long book and patience is needed to go through it, but it reads like a thriller.
How the US/Pak wanted to beat back the Soviets, how they supplied arms and billions of dollars to the Afghan militants, and how the monster created to bleed the Soviet Red Army slowly turned on its masters once it had eaten through the Soviets.

India needs to learn the lessons on what goes on "behind the scenes" and how covert action can take place to further national interests. I don't blame the CIA or even the Pak army / ISI from doing what they did. The Soviet threat was real and immediate. Pakistan wanted a strategic depth in Afghan and almost got their wish with the Taliban, but they miscalculated the jihad monster that they thought they could control and use against India in Kashmir.

As for the Americans, maybe their mistake was in not finishing the job and creating a stable political solution for Afghanistan, once the military objectives were met.